Method

1 · Scope

All nuclear builds, small and large, and the deals behind them: LWR SMRs, advanced (non-LWR) reactors, microreactors, large LWR new build, and restarts and uprates of existing plants. Fusion appears only as a comparator. Fuel cycle constraints are tracked because they often bind before the reactor does.

Every project also carries a deployment model: utility-owned grid unit, behind-the-meter industrial, co-located data center, federal or military site, DOE-authorized test reactor, or export. Pathway, ratepayer exposure and financing risk differ for each.

Announced, signed, financed, licensed, under construction and operating are different states. So are MWe and MWt, and nameplate and delivered. This site keeps them apart even when a press release doesn’t.

2 · Evidence grades

Every material claim carries a grade for the best source behind it. The grade describes the evidence, not the importance of the claim.

3 · Deal tiers

Every announced tie between a reactor and a buyer is placed on this scale, from most to least real. The site reports the tier, not the headline, and a deal moves up only on documentary evidence. Tiers 1–3 count as binding.

For each deal the record also captures which entity signed (parent or subsidiary), bridging power (gas turbines, grid purchases), co-located versus grid-connected structure, and any FERC, RTO or state PUC proceedings.

4 · Licensing ladder

Every design and site is placed on one rung, citing the docket. Pre-application activity is not licensing.

Non-NRC track. DOE authorization at DOE sites and labs, DoD authorization at military installations and foreign regulators (CNSC, UK ONR) are tracked off the NRC ladder. Hearing rights, NEPA handling and public participation differ on each. A DOE-track criticality is not progress on an NRC license.

5 · k-bands

A reactor with a multiplication factor below one dies away without an outside source; at one it sustains itself; above one it adds energy. Projects and deals are banded the same way.

The limiting factor sets the band. A project with a construction permit and no buyer is held back by the missing buyer. Large new build, restarts and uprates use the same bands, so SMR marketing can’t borrow credit for Palisades or Crane.

Deal view (current). On the deal tracker the band is derived mechanically from the tier and licensing rung: tiers 1–3 with the plant operating or in fuel load (rung 5) are k > 1; other tiers 1–3 are k = 1; tiers 4–8 are k < 1. Fusion comparators carry no band. As of Oct 23, 2026: k > 1 10,422 MW (8 deals), k = 1 3,729 MW (9), k < 1 44,103 MW (23).

Project view (planned). Project bands that also weigh licensing, construction, fuel and capital will be assigned by analyst judgment, with the limiting factor named on each row.

6 · How the headline numbers are built

• Binding means deal tiers 1–3. Split into (a) existing plants, restarts and uprates, and (b) new reactors.
• Non-binding pipeline means tiers 5–8. Tier 4 (offtaker equity) is shown separately because it is capital, not power.
• Units. MWe as claimed by the parties, not metered delivery. Where a row gives a range, the full contracted figure is used and the range is kept in the row.
• No double counting. Umbrella programs exclude their named sub-projects (the X-energy 5 GW remainder excludes Cascade and Indiana; the Kairos 500 MW remainder excludes Hermes 2).
• Exclusions. Fusion comparators (Helion, Commonwealth Fusion Systems) and rows with no stated MW (Loviisa, Army Janus, North Anna, Sabey) stay in the data but out of the totals. No MW figure is estimated to fill a gap.
• Delivery date. Totals are not yet cut by first-delivery date. Several binding rows deliver in 2030 or later; they are listed in meta.json.
• Rounding. GW to one decimal, except the new-reactor figure (two decimals, because it is under 1 GW). Exact MW are in the data files.

7 · As-of rules

• Every status claim carries an as-of date. A row is only as current as its as-of date says.
• The site date (top of every page) is when the pages were last published. The data date is when the underlying rows were last verified. They can differ, and both are shown.
• Figures marked seed come from the first full pass of the deal tracker (Oct 23, 2026) and are being re-verified row by row.
• “Not publicly reported” never means “did not happen.” Confidential submissions and sealed matters exist; absence of reporting is stated as such.
• Times are US Central unless a source gives its own zone.

8 · Correction policy

• Never delete, append. A missed date stays on the ledger. When a promise is re-dated, met or dropped, the new outcome and source are added and the original stays.
• Corrections are dated and visible. When new evidence contradicts an earlier entry, the entry is updated with a note saying what changed, when, and on what source. The site’s full change history is public in its version control.
• Steelman first. Before a critical conclusion, the strongest case for the company or project is stated, along with the evidence that would prove the critique wrong. Real milestones are credited plainly.
• Send a correction with a source through The Nuclear Inner Critic. Primary documents move a row fastest.

9 · Source hierarchy

Primary sources first. Secondary sources find leads; the record settles them. When sources disagree, the disagreement is reported along with which source has the stronger basis, and the funding and lean of advocacy groups on both sides are noted.

10 · Red-flag checklist

Cited by number on entries where the evidence supports it.

1. No docketed NRC application, but public commercial-operation dates.
2. GW pipeline exceeds binding contracts by more than an order of magnitude.
3. No identified fuel source for first core.
4. Cost claims without basis year, FOAK/NOAK label or independent review.
5. Leadership lacks nuclear operating or licensing experience.
6. Equity raised at rallies; insiders selling; repeated ATM use.
7. Milestone language that confuses acceptance with approval.
8. Timeline changes without explanation, or a changed narrative in place of a new date.
9. Related-party transactions or undisclosed affiliations.
10. Reliance on a single politically contingent policy (one EO, one credit, one appropriation).
11. Offtaker is the investor (circular demand).
12. Site has unresolved water, seismic, transmission or co-location hazard issues.

11 · Conduct

• Fact, analysis and opinion are labeled and claims are attributed to their source.
• Conduct and claims are criticized on evidence. Fraud, crime or bad faith are not imputed without a documented basis; unproven misconduct is “alleged.”
• Quotes are short and exact, used only where wording matters. Everything else is paraphrase, and the ledger marks which is which.
• Not investment advice. Securities and valuations are analyzed factually; no trades are recommended.
• Confidence is stated (high, moderate, low) on conclusions, with what would change it.